Veros released its most recent VeroFORECAST, a quarterly national real estate market forecast for the 12-month period ending December 1, 2016.
The VeroFORECAST report indicates residential market values will continue their overall upward trend during the next 12 months, with overall annual appreciation rising to +4.4% (from its Q3-2015 forecast of +3.6%) with 94% of markets forecast to appreciate. “Our current VeroFORECAST update continues to show increasing strength for the next year and above last quarter’s update,” says Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling at Veros.
“However in the 13 to 24 month forecast window, we expect the rate of appreciation to slow down with this forecast period expecting only +2.3% appreciation. The primary driver for this weakening can be attributed to tightening already begun by the Fed which is likely to cause mortgage interest rates to begin ticking upward. We don’t see dramatic increases in interest rates or a repeat of 2007 price declines. At this point, it simply looks like a slowing of the increase in house prices as we get into well into 2016 and 2017.”
“The top forecast markets are all showing appreciation in the 10% range with the Pacific Northwest getting very hot,” continues Fox. “Portland, Seattle, and Bend are numbers 1, 2, and 4 in the nation, respectively. Denver and San Francisco continue to be strong as well rounding out the Top 5. Most of these markets have strong economies, growing populations, and month’s supply of homes around 2.0 months or less. With these conditions, it is difficult for these markets to do anything other than appreciate at a good clip. Oregon, Washington, and North Carolina showed the biggest gains in one-year forecast levels from last quarter’s update. Top performing markets continue to confine themselves to California, Colorado, Florida, Washington, and Oregon which comprise 21 of the Top 25 forecast markets.”
The forecast bottom markets are expected to be in the eastern portion of the U.S. New Jersey, Connecticut, parts of New York, West Virginia, Alabama, and parts of Pennsylvania account for well over half of the bottom 25 markets. However even these expected poorest performing of markets are only expected to depreciate slightly or be flat.