Data Suggests A Housing Slowdown In Some States

Summit Valuations, LLC, a full service valuation company, announced today the release of its latest Residential Real Estate Market Overview, this time using information collected during March, the most current available industry data. The report includes analysis from Summit’s Chief Valuation Officer, Mark Melikian, author of the report.

“The statistics from March suggest a slower increase in the number of homes sold and sales prices over the next 30 to 60 days,” Melikian said. “Data published by the NAR shows the pending home sales index increased 1.4%, month over month and year over year. However, we see variations in this rate when we look at the index on a regional basis.”

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The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator of housing activity that measures housing contract activity. Homes go under contract 30 to 60 days before they are sold, meaning the Index leads Existing Home Sales by that amount of time.

The Northeast had the highest percentage of increases both month over month (3.2%) and year over year (18.4%). The Midwest and South reflected month over month gains (.2% and 3%, respectively) and the Midwest experienced a year over year gain of 4%. In contrast to these increases, the South and West showed a decrease in year over year pending sales (declines of .6% and 7.9%, respectively) and the West experienced a month over month decrease of 1.8%. On a regional level the South had the highest number of existing home sales and the West had the highest median price, while the Northeast had the largest percentage increase in sales and price, month over month.

In March 2016, the industry saw the month’s supply of housing, the federal unemployment rate and mortgage rates all decrease, year over year. The median sales price, the seasonally adjusted annual number of homes sold and the pending home sales index all increased during the month.

“In the next month or two we can expect an increase in the number of homes sold in the Northeast, Midwest and South, along with a decrease in the number of homes sold in the West,” Melikian added. “It should be noted that since the West leads the nation in median sales prices (see figure 9), affordability gaps (see last month’s report) may be contributing to the current decline in pending home sales.”

Summit’s report provides data made public by the U.S. Government, the National Association of Realtors and Freddie Mac. Melikian has been appraising real estate since 1987 and has been active in nationwide valuation services since 2005. He has successfully led teams of analysts, developed valuation services to meet client needs and represented buyers and sellers in secondary market loan tie out meetings. Much of his recent experience has focused on forensic reviews of REO properties for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Mr. Melikian holds a B.S. in Business Administration from San Diego State University.