Overall, the growth rate of the worldwide population of software developers is forecast to peak in late 2019 and into 2020 followed by a decrease in growth acceleration and virtual flattening of the growth curve in subsequent years according to Evans Data’s recently released “Global Developer Population and Demographics” Study. However, growth rates for individual regions or countries vary as do those for major technologies. Japan, for example is currently flat and will remain so while South Korea, China, Vietnam, Colombia and Mexico are expected to retain a strong growth curve throughout the next four to five years.
The Global Developer Population and Demographic Study, now in its 26th edition, is the definitive developer population estimate, updated every six months. The result of extensive secondary research, the study finds 23 million developers worldwide as 2019 approaches with projections to reach 27.7 million within five years. Global survey data laid atop the population estimates show technology adoption figures worldwide as well as by region and offer insights into estimates on numbers of developers such as how many developers in each region are developing in the Cloud, how many use Blockchain, etc.
“Our projections for future developer populations aren’t solely based on linear regression analysis, though we have more than 25 data points to base that on,” said Janel Garvin, CEO of Evans Data, “We also include extensive data on the local conditions within each country such as GDP, computer products sold, Internet connections, tertiary education, CS graduations, and many more data points. This allows us a good deal of accuracy in making future projections about developer population and tech advancements in each country.”
The largest group of software developers is now between 26 and 40 years old (13.6M) which ties in with the tendency for emerging markets, where developers are typically younger, to have a stronger long-term forecast.
Conducted every 6 months, the Global Developer Population Study Vol 2, 2018 is 80 pages long with both population estimates and forecasts as well as tech adoption estimates by region and country.