The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for January 2019 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases remained unchanged from a year ago. Compared to December 2018, applications increased by 43 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.
“After two lackluster months, new home sales surged almost 30 percent in January to the fastest pace since our survey began in 2013,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “ The healthy job market, faster wage growth, moderating price gains and lower mortgage rates, all helped home sales recover. Additionally, builders seem to be seeing improvement in their labor shortages, as government survey data showed increases in construction hiring and openings in December.”
MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000 units in January 2019, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors.
The seasonally adjusted estimate for January is an increase of 29.2 percent from the December pace of 552,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 54,000 new home sales in January 2019, an increase of 45.9 percent from 37,000 new home sales in December.
By product type, conventional loans composed 68.7 percent of loan applications, FHA loans composed 18.6 percent, RHS/USDA loans composed 0.5 percent and VA loans composed 12.2 percent. The average loan size of new homes decreased from $334,944 in December to $334,532 in January.
MBA’s Builder Application Survey tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of home builders across the country. Utilizing this data, as well as data from other sources, MBA is able to provide an early estimate of new home sales volumes at the national, state, and metro level. This data also provides information regarding the types of loans used by new home buyers. Official new home sales estimates are conducted by the Census Bureau on a monthly basis. In that data, new home sales are recorded at contract signing, which is typically coincident with the mortgage application.