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Analysis Shows The Extent Of Recovery Gains In The U.S. Housing Market

CoreLogic released a 10-year retrospect of the U.S. residential foreclosure crisis, “United States Residential Foreclosure Crisis: 10 Years Later.” The report examines the path of the residential foreclosure crisis beginning with the relatively healthy years early in the 2000s, through the peak of the crisis, to present day. The country has started to normalize, recording approximately 22,000 completed foreclosures a month. Completed foreclosures reflect the total number of homes lost to foreclosure.

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The foreclosure crisis began in some parts of the country as early as 2007 and later peaked nationwide in September 2010, with approximately 120,000 completed foreclosures occurring during that single month. Throughout the crisis years, CoreLogic monitored completed foreclosures, the foreclosure inventory and the serious delinquency rate. Many economists mark the beginning of the foreclosure crisis with the collapse of two Bear Stearns subprime funds in June 20071, with the crisis deepening as a result of the Lehman Brothers2 bankruptcy in September 2008. Since the beginning of 2007, there have been approximately 7.8 million completed foreclosures nationally. Beginning in Q2 2004 when homeownership rates peaked, there have been approximately 8.6 million homes lost to foreclosure.
 
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At the end of 2016, the national foreclosure inventory, which reflects all homes in some stage of the foreclosure process, included approximately 336,000, or 0.9 percent, of all homes with a mortgage compared with 1.4 million homes, or 3.3 percent, at the peak of the residential foreclosure crisis in September 2010.

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“The country experienced a wild ride in the mortgage market between 2008 and 2012, with the foreclosure peak occurring in 2010,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “As we look back over 10 years of the foreclosure crisis, we cannot ignore the connection between jobs and homeownership. A healthy economy is driven by jobs coupled with consumer confidence that usually leads to homeownership.”
 
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During the housing crisis, CoreLogic also reported the number of mortgages in serious delinquency, defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure or REO. The delinquency rate (payments past due by 30, 60 or 90 days) continues to be a leading indicator of troubled markets. At the end of 2016, 1 million mortgages, or 2.6 percent of homes with a mortgage, were in serious delinquency, compared to the serious delinquency peak of 3.7 million mortgages, or 8.6 percent of homes with a mortgage, were in serious delinquency, in January 2010. In recent years, the decline in serious delinquencies has been geographically broad throughout the country with year-over-year decreases from December 2015 to December 2016 in 48 states and the District of Columbia.

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Using Mobile Technology To Improve Lending

Mobile technology can revolutionize the mortgage space when used well. For example, CoreLogic has launched the RealQuest App to provide real estate and mortgage professionals access to detailed property information, transaction history and neighborhood sales data while they’re in the field. Here’s how it works:

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The RealQuest App gives users access to the nation’s leading property information database and search engine, RealQuest, which covers 3,100+ counties and 99.9 percent of all U.S. property records. It is designed to provide mortgage and title companies, real estate professionals, appraisers, government agencies, investors, and telecommunication and utility companies with comprehensive property, ownership and mortgage data on their iOS devices.

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The RealQuest App allows users to:

>> Search by property address, owner name or map.

>> Identify all properties associated with an owner.

>> Check foreclosure status.

>> Validate property value.

>> Confirm property ownership.

>> Research property transaction history.

>> Compare nearby sales.

“Purchase originations are being forecasted to reach more than $1 trillion this year, with one in three new mortgages expected to be made to Millennials. Given the growth of Millennial household formation and their technology preferences, it’s critical for mortgage professionals, real estate agents, appraisers and investors to have cutting-edge, on-the-go technology that gives them a competitive edge,” said Shaleen Khatod, senior vice president of Data Solutions at CoreLogic. “With the RealQuest App, they can access national property, owner and mortgage data and insights that will help them seize more opportunities whenever and wherever they are.”

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The RealQuest App is an extension of the New RealQuest desktop version, which, in addition to the features available in the app, includes Building Permit Reports to validate home improvements and Homeowners Association Reports to provide detailed HOA information.

The app is available for download in the Apple App Store. To use it, mortgage and real estate professionals must be subscribed to the New RealQuest.

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CoreLogic: Home Prices Are Up Year Over Year

New data from the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for November 2016 shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Here’s the data:

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Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 7.1 percent in November 2016 compared with November 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in November 2016 compared with October 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2016 to November 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.1 percent from November 2016 to December 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“Last summer’s very low mortgage rates sparked demand, and with for-sale inventories low, the result has been a pickup in home-price growth,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “With mortgage rates higher today and expected to rise even further in 2017, our national Home Price Index is expected to slow to 4.7 percent year over year by November 2017.”

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“Home prices continue to march higher, with home prices in 27 states above their pre-crisis peak levels,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Nationally, the CoreLogic Home Price Index remains 4 percent below its April 2006 peak, but should surpass that peak by the end of 2017.”

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New Report Tracks Credit Risk

CoreLogic released a new quarterly report featuring the CoreLogic Housing Credit Index (HCI) that measures variations in home mortgage credit risk attributes over time—including borrower credit score, debt-to-income ratio (DTI) and loan-to-value ratio (LTV). A rising HCI indicates that new single-family loans have more credit risk than during the prior period, and a declining HCI means that new originations have less credit risk.

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The current HCI shows mortgage loans originated in Q3 2016 continued to exhibit low credit risk versus the previous quarter and Q3 2015. In terms of credit risk, Q3 2016 loans are among the highest-quality home loans originated since the year 2001.

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“Mortgage originations over the past 15 years have exhibited a huge swing in credit tolerance, as shown in our Housing Credit Index. The index incorporates six risk attributes, including the three C’s of underwriting—credit, collateral, and capacity. Using 2001 originations as a base year, the HCI shows the significant loosening of credit running up to 2006. This was followed by a dramatic tightening of credit in response to the real estate crash and a decline in high-credit-risk applicants beginning with the Great Recession,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist of CoreLogic. “While low downpayment and high payment-to-income products are available today, borrowers generally need good credit scores to qualify. This may be a factor that has led to the drop-off in applications from those with lower credit scores during the last few years.”

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Nothaft also observed that one of the consequences of this prolonged trend is that many potential homebuyers appear to believe that they cannot get a mortgage. “When we compare applications to closed loans, what we find is that lenders are originating the bulk of the applications that they are receiving, but the applications that are coming in tend to be from relatively high quality, low-risk applicants.”

Home Equity Rises Over $700 Billion In The Third Quarter

CoreLogic released a new analysis showing that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63 percent of all homeowners) saw their equity increase by a total of $227 billion in Q3 2016 compared with the previous quarter, an increase of 3.1 percent. Additionally, 384,000 borrowers moved out of negative equity, increasing the percentage of homes with positive equity to 93.7 percent of all mortgaged properties, or approximately 47.9 million homes. Year over year, home equity grew by $726 billion, representing an increase of 10.8 percent in Q3 2016 compared with Q3 2015.

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In Q3 2016, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity stood at 3.2 million, or 6.3 percent of all homes with a mortgage. This is a decrease of 10.7 percent quarter over quarter from 3.6 million homes, or 7.1 percent of mortgaged properties, in Q2 2016 and a decrease of 24.1 percent year over year from 4.2 million homes, or 8.4 percent of mortgaged properties, in Q3 2015.

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Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in home value, an increase in mortgage debt or a combination of both.

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Negative equity peaked at 26 percent of mortgaged residential properties in Q4 2009, based on CoreLogic negative equity data, which goes back to Q3 2009.

The national aggregate value of negative equity was about $282 billion at the end of Q3 2016, decreasing approximately $2.1 billion, or 0.8 percent, from $284 billion in Q2 2016, and decreasing year over year about $25 billion, or 8.2 percent, from nearly $307 billion in Q3 2015.

“Home equity rose by $12,500 for the average homeowner over the last four quarters,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “There was wide geographic variation with homeowners in California, Oregon and Washington gaining an average of at least $25,000 in home equity wealth, while owners in Alaska, North Dakota and Connecticut had small declines, on average.”

“Price appreciation is the main ingredient for home equity wealth creation, and home prices rose 5.8 percent in the year ending September 2016 according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Paydown of principal is the second key component of equity building. Many homeowners have refinanced into shorter-term loans, such as a 15-year loan, and by doing so, they have significantly fewer mortgage payments and are able to build equity wealth faster.”

CoreLogic: Home Prices Rise In October

CoreLogic released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for October 2016 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.

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Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.7 percent in October 2016 compared with October 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in October 2016 compared with September 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

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The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.6 percent on a year-over-year basis from October 2016 to October 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.2 percent from October 2016 to November 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“While national home prices increased 6.7 percent, only nine states had home price growth at the same rate of growth or higher than the national average because the largest states, such as Texas, Florida and California, are experiencing high rates of home price appreciation,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic.

“Home prices are continuing to soar across much of the U.S. led by major metro areas such as Boston, Los Angeles, Miami and Denver. Prices are being fueled by a potent cocktail of high demand, low inventories and historically low interest rates,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Looking forward to next year, nationwide home prices are expected to climb another 5 percent in many parts of the country to levels approaching the pre-recession peak.”

Let’s Power Ahead

We, as an industry have to keep moving forward. Quitting is not an opinion. There is a lot of belly-aching about new rules and regulation, but instead of complaining, the industry has to adapt. The fact of the matter is, things are getting better.

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For example, in Q2 2016, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity stood at 3.6 million, or 7.1 percent of all homes with a mortgage. This is a decrease of 13.2 percent quarter over quarter from 4.2 million homes, or 8.2 percent, in Q1 2016 and a decrease of 19 percent year over year from 4.5 million homes, or 8.9 percent, compared with Q2 2015, according to data compiled by CoreLogic.

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Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in home value, an increase in mortgage debt or a combination of both.

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For homes in negative equity status, the national aggregate value of negative equity was $284 billion at the end of Q2 2016, decreasing approximately $20.4 billion, or 6.7 percent, from $305 billion in Q1 2016. On a year-over-year basis, the value of negative equity declined overall from $314 billion in Q2 2015, representing a decrease of 9.5 percent in 12 months.

Of the more than 50 million homes with a mortgage, approximately 8.6 million, or 17 percent, have less than 20 percent equity (referred to as under-equitied) and approximately 965,000, or 1.9 percent, have less than 5 percent equity (referred to as near-negative equity). Borrowers who are under-equitied may have a difficult time refinancing their existing homes or obtaining new financing to sell and buy another home due to underwriting constraints. Borrowers with near-negative equity are considered at risk of shifting into negative equity if home prices fall.

“Home-value gains have played a large part in restoring home equity,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The CoreLogic Home Price Index for the U.S. recorded 5.2 percent growth in the year through June, an important reason that the number of owners with negative equity fell by 850,000 in the second quarter from a year earlier.”

“We see home prices rising another 5 percent in the coming year based on the latest projected national CoreLogic Home Price Index,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Assuming this growth is uniform across the U.S., that should release an additional 700,000 homeowners from the scourge of negative equity.”

So, let’s not get depressed about our lot in life just yet, let’s power ahead and make the mortgage industry better then it has ever been before.

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Partnership Automates HOA Payments

CoreLogic has announced a business relationship with RentTrack. The new service, CoreLogic Payments, is powered by RentTrack and will provide an online rent payment solution for residents to build their credit as they make their rent or HOA payments online.

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“CoreLogic recognized the value of the RentTrack resident value approach: build credit as you pay rent,” said Richard Leurig, senior vice president, CoreLogic Rental Property Solutions. “We are extremely excited to offer our clients and their residents the best in rental and HOA payments and reporting.”

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CoreLogic Payments combines the RentTrack innovative payments and reporting platform with the Rental Property Solutions suite of property management tools offered by CoreLogic. Residents benefit from the convenient payment options that help them build their credit, while Property Managers will gain operational efficiencies with the expedited payment process and faster funding time.

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“CoreLogic is an ideal partner for RentTrack. They are a recognized, established leader in the Property Management & HOA space. They innovate and deliver their services on an open, flexible technology platform. That is the definition of strategic partner for RentTrack,” said Matthew Briggs, CEO of RentTrack. “The integration with CoreLogic continues RentTrack’s commitment to provide best-of-breed capabilities by delivering the highest online payment adoption of any rent payment provider, period.”

CoreLogic Rental Property Solutions are powered by a dynamic workflow engine through which clients are able to access unique data assets, statistical resident screening and renter performance analytics. Additionally, intelligent integrations with popular property management software enable leasing teams to operate seamlessly and efficiently.

Foreclosure Inventory Declines By Over 30% Since Last Year

Data from CoreLogic shows the foreclosure inventory declined by 31.1 percent and completed foreclosures declined by 7.0 percent compared with September 2015. The number of completed foreclosures nationwide decreased year over year from 39,000 in September 2015 to 36,000 in September 2016, representing a decrease of 69.7 percent from the peak of 118,222 in September 2010.

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The foreclosure inventory represents the number of homes at some stage of the foreclosure process and completed foreclosures reflect the total number of homes lost to foreclosure. Since the financial crisis began in September 2008, there have been approximately 6.4 million completed foreclosures nationally, and since homeownership rates peaked in the second quarter of 2004, there have been approximately 8.5 million homes lost to foreclosure.

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As of September 2016, the national foreclosure inventory included approximately 340,000, or 0.9 percent, of all homes with a mortgage, compared with 493,000 homes, or 1.3 percent, in September 2015.

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CoreLogic also reports that the number of mortgages in serious delinquency (defined as 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure or REO) declined by 24.8 percent from September 2015 to September 2016, with 1 million mortgages, or 2.6 percent, in serious delinquency, the lowest level since August 2007. The decline was geographically broad with decreases in serious delinquency in 48 states and the District of Columbia.

“September’s serious delinquency rate dropped by 25 percent compared to a year earlier, the third consecutive monthly acceleration in the rate of decline,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This improvement is continued evidence of the recovery in the housing market, especially given that the decreases were fairly uniform in most cities across the country.”

“Completed foreclosures have fallen by a total of more than 100,000 homes during the 12 months prior to September 2016,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The decline in foreclosures is one of the drivers in the drop in vacancies, which is positive for homeowners and communities. Heading into 2017 we see that prices, performance and production – the three most important drivers of the real estate market – are all improving.”

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CoreLogic: Home Prices Are Up 6%

New data from CoreLogic shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Here are the details:

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Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.3 percent in September 2016 compared with September 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in September 2016 compared with August 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2016 to September 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.3 percent from September 2016 to October 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“Home-equity wealth has doubled during the last five years to $13 trillion, largely because of the recovery in home prices,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Nationwide during the past year, the average gain in housing wealth was about $11,000 per homeowner, but with wide geographic variation.”

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“Home-price growth creates wealth for owners with home equity,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “A 5 percent rise in home values over the next year would create another $1 trillion in home-equity wealth for homeowners.”