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Distressed Sales Drop To 10-Year Low

ATTOM Data Solutions released its Q3 2017 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that distressed home sales — including bank-owned (REO) sales, third-party foreclosure auction sales, and short sales — accounted for 12.5 percent of all home sales in Q3 2017, down from 13.5 percent in the previous quarter and down from 14.1 percent in Q3 2016 to the lowest level since Q3 2007.

“Distressed sales nationally are now the exception rather than the rule, and we would expect the distressed sale share to return to the pre-recession norm of single-digit percentages within the next year given the current downward trajectory,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Distressed sales have become more localized in nature, with some of the biggest increases from a year ago in markets experiencing regional economic weakness or a natural disaster event that has triggered a jump in foreclosure activity.”

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Distressed sales share increases in Corpus Christi, Indianapolis, Cedar Rapids, Baton Rouge

Among 146 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and at least 100 distressed sales during the quarter, those with the highest share of distressed sales were Atlantic City, New Jersey (35.2 percent); McAllen-Edinburg, Texas (24.5 percent); Montgomery, Alabama (23.7 percent); Akron, Ohio (23.2 percent); and Youngstown, Ohio (22.5 percent).

Metros with the smallest share of distressed sales in Q3 2017 were San Jose, California (3.1 percent); Salt Lake City, Utah (3.3 percent); Austin, Texas (4.1 percent); San Francisco, California (5.2 percent); and Provo-Orem, Utah (5.5 percent).

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Counter to the national trend, 29 of the 146 metros analyzed for distressed sales (20 percent) posted a year-over-year increase in the share of distressed sales, led by Corpus Christi, Texas (up 33 percent); Indianapolis, Indiana (up 30 percent); Cedar Rapids, Iowa (up 29 percent); Baton Rouge, Louisiana (up 25 percent); Provo, Utah (up 22 percent); and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (up 22 percent).

Major metros with an increase in the share of distressed sales compared to a year ago included New York, New York (up 6 percent); Dallas, Texas (up 13 percent); Houston, Texas (up 7 percent); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (up 1 percent); and Phoenix, Arizona (up 6 percent).

Median sales prices exceed pre-recession peaks in 66 percent of local markets

The median sales price nationwide in the third quarter was $248,000, up 10 percent from a year ago to a new all-time high — 3 percent above the pre-recession high of $241,900 in Q3 2005. It was the second consecutive quarter where median home prices nationwide were above the pre-recession peak.

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Median home prices increased to new all-time highs in 55 of 126 metro areas analyzed for home price appreciation in the report (44 percent), including Los Angeles, Dallas, Atlanta, Detroit and Seattle. Median home prices have exceeded pre-recession peaks since the end of the recession in 83 of the 126 metro areas (66 percent).

Median home prices are still below pre-recession peaks in 43 of 126 metropolitan areas analyzed for home price appreciation in the report (34 percent), including New York (6 percent below); Chicago (10 percent below); Philadelphia (2 percent below); and Washington, D.C. (3 percent below).

Markets with median home prices in Q3 2017 still furthest below the pre-recession peak were York, Pennsylvania (60 percent below); Naples, Florida (24 percent below); Modesto, California (21 percent below); Bridgeport, Connecticut (20 percent below); Mobile, Alabama (19 percent below); and Las Vegas, Nevada (19 percent below).

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CoreLogic: Home Prices Will Continue To Rise

CoreLogic released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast data for November 2015 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Here’s the scoop:

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.3 percent in November 2015 compared with November 2014 and increased by 0.5 percent in November 2015 compared with October 2015, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

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The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.4 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2015 to November 2016, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to remain flat from November 2015 to December 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“Heading into 2016, home price growth remains in its sweet spot as prices have increased between 5 and 6 percent on a year-over-year basis for 16 consecutive months,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Regionally we are beginning to see fissures, with slowdowns in some Texas and California markets, but the northwest and southeast remain on solid footing.”

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“Many factors, including strong demand and tight supply in many markets, are contributing to the long-sustained boom in prices and home equity which is a very good thing for those owning homes,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “On the flip side, prices have outstripped incomes for several years in a number of regions so, as we enter 2016, affordability is becoming more of a constraint on sales in some markets.”

About The Author

[author_bio]

Tony Garritano
Tony Garritano is chairman and founder at PROGRESS in Lending Association. As a speaker Tony has worked hard to inform executives about how technology should be a tool used to further business objectives. For over 10 years he has worked as a journalist, researcher and speaker in the mortgage technology space. Starting this association was the next step for someone like Tony, who has dedicated his career to providing mortgage executives with the information needed to make informed technology decisions. He can be reached via e-mail at tony@progressinlending.com.

CoreLogic: Home Prices To Rise For The “Foreseeable Future”

CoreLogic released its April 2015 CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.8 percent in April 2015 compared with April 2014. This change represents 38 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 2.7 percent in April 2015 compared with March of 2015.

Including distressed sales, 30 states plus the District of Columbia were at or within 10 percent of their peak prices in April. Eight states and the District of Columbia reached new price peaks not experienced since January 1976 when the CoreLogic HPI started. These states include Alaska, Colorado, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming.

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Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 6.8 percent in April 2015 compared with April 2014 and increased by 2.3 percent month over month compared with March 2015. Excluding distressed sales, only South Dakota (-0.3 percent) and Louisiana (-0.2 percent) showed year-over-year depreciation in April. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate-owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase by 1.1 percent month over month from April 2015 to May 2015 and by 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from April 2015 to April 2016. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are projected to increase by 0.9 percent month over month from April 2015 to May 2015 and by 4.9 percent year over year from April 2015 to April 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“For the first four months of 2015, home sales were up 9 percent compared to the same period a year ago,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “One byproduct of the increased sales activity is rising house prices, and, as a result, month-over-month home prices are up almost 3 percent for April 2015 and up more than 6 percent from a year ago.”

“Old fashion supply and demand, fueled by historically low mortgage rates and improving consumer finances and confidence, continue to push home prices up,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We expect continued price appreciation throughout 2015 and into next year. Over the longer term, household formation, up by more than one million over the past year alone, will drive down vacancy rates and create tighter housing markets in many metropolitan areas. This should provide the necessary underpinning for rising prices for the foreseeable future.”

About The Author

[author_bio]

Tony Garritano
Tony Garritano is chairman and founder at PROGRESS in Lending Association. As a speaker Tony has worked hard to inform executives about how technology should be a tool used to further business objectives. For over 10 years he has worked as a journalist, researcher and speaker in the mortgage technology space. Starting this association was the next step for someone like Tony, who has dedicated his career to providing mortgage executives with the information needed to make informed technology decisions. He can be reached via e-mail at tony@progressinlending.com.

Mixed Results

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.7 percent in January 2015 compared to January 2014. This change represents 35 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 1.1 percent in January 2015 compared to one month prior.

Including distressed sales, 27 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak. Four states, New York (+5.6), Wyoming (+8.3 percent), Texas (+8.3 percent) and Colorado (+9.1 percent), reached new highs in the home price index since January 1976 when the index starts.

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Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 5.6 percent in January 2015 compared to January 2014 and increased 1.4 percent month over month compared to December 2014. Also excluding distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in January. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

Moving forward, The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase just slightly, by 0.4 percent month over month from January 2015 to February 2015 and, on a year-over-year basis, by 5.3 percent from January 2015 to January 2016. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to increase 0.3 percent month over month from January 2015 to February 2015 and by 4.9 percent year over year from January 2015 to January 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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What does this mean? “House price appreciation has generally been stronger in the western half of the nation and weakest in the mid-Atlantic and northeast states,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “In part, these trends reflect the strength of regional economies. Colorado and Texas have had stronger job creation and have seen 8 to 9 percent price gains over the past 12 months in our combined indexes. In contrast, values were flat or down in Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland in our overall index, including distressed sales.”

So, depending on how you see things, the glass can be half full because home prices are increasing, or half empty because the increases aren’t huge and don’t span all 50 states.

About The Author

[author_bio]

Tony Garritano
Tony Garritano is chairman and founder at PROGRESS in Lending Association. As a speaker Tony has worked hard to inform executives about how technology should be a tool used to further business objectives. For over 10 years he has worked as a journalist, researcher and speaker in the mortgage technology space. Starting this association was the next step for someone like Tony, who has dedicated his career to providing mortgage executives with the information needed to make informed technology decisions. He can be reached via e-mail at tony@progressinlending.com.

Home Prices Set To Fluctuate

According to the November 2014 CoreLogic Home Price Index report, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.5 percent in November 2014 compared to November 2013. This change represents 33 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. Also, on a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, rose by 0.1 percent in November 2014 compared to October 2014.

At the state level, including distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in November. Twenty-nine states are at or within 10 percent of their peak. Seven states reached new highs in the home price index (since January 1976 when the index starts); these states were: Colorado, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.3 percent in November 2014 compared to November 2013 and 0.3 percent month over month compared to October 2014. Also excluding distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in November. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

However, going forward the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to decrease 0.1 percent month over month from November 2014 to December 2014 and increase, on a year-over-year basis, by 4.6 percent from November 2014 to November 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are also expected to decrease by 0.1 percent month over month from November 2014 to December 2014 and increase by 4.2 percent year over year from November 2014 to November 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“After decelerating for most of the year, home price growth has been holding firm between a 5-percent and 6-percent growth rate for the last four months,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “However, pockets of weakness are clear in Baltimore and Washington D.C., and three of the top four states with the highest price appreciation are energy intensive and had been benefitting from the energy boom which is currently receding as oil prices trend downward. These states—Texas, Colorado and North Dakota, may see some downward pressure on prices in 2015.”

“The pace of home price gains have slowed as we exit 2014 but this is probably only a temporary lull,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While the CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows a slight dip in prices next month, we believe that prices will be up a year from now as continued economic growth fuels buyer confidence and their willingness to purchase a home and invest in their future.”

About The Author

[author_bio]

Tony Garritano
Tony Garritano is chairman and founder at PROGRESS in Lending Association. As a speaker Tony has worked hard to inform executives about how technology should be a tool used to further business objectives. For over 10 years he has worked as a journalist, researcher and speaker in the mortgage technology space. Starting this association was the next step for someone like Tony, who has dedicated his career to providing mortgage executives with the information needed to make informed technology decisions. He can be reached via e-mail at tony@progressinlending.com.