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Most Home Prices Are Now Above Pre-Recession Peaks

Data from ATTOM Data Solutions shows that median home prices in 57 of 105 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report (54 percent) were above their pre-recession home price peaks in the first quarter.

Nationwide the median home price of $240,000 in Q1 2018 was less than 1 percent below its pre-recession peak of $241,500 in Q3 2005, but still up 9.1 percent from a year ago. Metro areas with Q1 2018 median home prices the furthest above their pre-recession peaks were Houston, Texas (69 percent above); Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas (67 percent above); Denver, Colorado (62 percent above); San Jose, California (60 percent above); and San Antonio, Texas (57 percent above).

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Other major metros with at least 1 million people and with Q1 2018 median home prices at least 30 percent above pre-recession peaks were Nashville, Tennessee (46 percent above); Austin, Texas (45 percent above); Salt Lake City, Utah (42 percent above); Raleigh, North Carolina (35 percent above); Indianapolis, Indiana (31 percent above); and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (30 percent above).

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“Rising interest rates and recently enacted tax reform that removed some tax incentives for homeownership were not enough to cool off red-hot home price appreciation in many parts of the country, with 30 of the 105 local markets analyzed posting double-digit gains in median home prices in the first quarter,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Home prices are still below pre-recession peaks in 46 percent of local markets, but nearly one-third of even those markets posted double-digit home price appreciation in the first quarter.”

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Median home prices in 48 of the 105 metro areas analyzed in the report (46 percent) were still below pre-recession peaks in Q1 2018, led by Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Connecticut (25 percent below); New Haven, Connecticut (22 percent below); Allentown, Pennsylvania (21 percent below); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (20 percent below); and Hartford, Connecticut (19 percent below).

Along with Philadelphia and Hartford, other major metros with at least 1 million people and with Q1 2018 median home prices at least 15 percent below pre-recession peaks were Chicago, Illinois (19 percent below); Baltimore, Maryland (17 percent below); Tucson, Arizona (16 percent below); Las Vegas, Nevada (16 percent below); and New York-Newark-Jersey City (15 percent below).

Home Prices Up 7% In February

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for February 2017 shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 7 percent in February 2017 compared with February 2016 and increased month over month by 1 percent in February 2017 compared with January 2017, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

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The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from February 2017 to February 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.4 percent from February 2017 to March 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“Home prices and rents have risen the most in local markets with high demand and limited supply, such as Seattle, Portland and Denver,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The rise in housing costs has been largest for lower-tier-priced homes. For example, from December to February in Seattle, the CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 12 percent and our single-family rent index rose 6 percent for all price tiers compared with the same period a year earlier. However, when looking at only lower-cost homes in Seattle, the price increase was 13 percent and the rent increase was 7 percent.”

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“Home prices continue to grow at a torrid pace so far in 2017 and these gains are likely to continue well into the future,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Home prices are at peak levels in many major markets and the appreciation is being driven by a number of dynamics—high demand, stronger employment, lean supplies and affordability—that will continue to play out in the coming years. The CoreLogic Home Price Index is projecting an additional 5 percent rise in home prices nationally over the next 12 months.”

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March Home Sales Rise As Prices Rise

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast indicates a slight increase in existing home sales. According to the nowcast, March sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.41 – 5.77 million with a targeted number of 5.59 million, up 2.0 percent from NAR’s reported February sales and up 4.6 percent from a year ago.

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“As we enter the important Spring selling season, consumer demand appears to be strong. The big question is whether there will be enough homes for sale to meet that demand,” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “The underlying fundamentals of the market remain solid: job and wage growth are strong and interest rates remain low despite a slight uptick after the Fed move. But inventory – especially of entry-level homes – remains stubbornly low.”

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Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast projected home sales to take a step back from their cyclical high and the recent report from The National Association of Realtors (NAR) confirmed this. NAR reported that existing home sales in February retreated to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 5.48 million units, down 3.7 percent from January although still up 5.4 percent from a year ago.

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Last month’s Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid year-over-year gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing-home price for all housing types rose 7.7 percent year-over-year to $228,400 in February. This marks the 60th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The March Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing-home sales will continue to make annual strides in March, falling between $220,885 – $244,136 with a target price point of $232,511 up 1.8 percent from February and up 4.4 percent from last year’s NAR figure.

“As inventory supply continues to constrain the housing market, housing demand and home price growth continue to be strong, creating affordability concerns in some markets,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “Looking forward, it’s possible that higher mortgage rates may contribute to more affordability obstacles for would-be homebuyers. In the meantime, the US housing market will continue to forge ahead in a jagged fashion as the solid labor market supports demand.”

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February Existing Home Sales Decline

Ten-X has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast, which indicates a slight decline in February existing home sales. According to the nowcast, February sales will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.34 – 5.69 million, with a targeted number of 5.51 million – down 3 percent from NAR’s reported January sales yet up 7 percent from a year ago.

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“At some point, rising prices, higher interest rates, and limited inventory will begin to take their toll on home sales,” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “While online search activity remains strong, indicating healthy demand for homes, the relatively weak numbers in both new home sales and pending sales of existing homes suggest that buyers may be having trouble finding properties. But monthly housing numbers are notoriously volatile, so it’s too soon to say whether we’re seeing an inflection point, or the market is just taking a breath before coming back strongly in the spring.”

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The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently reported that existing home sales saw strong growth in January, confirming the uptick the Ten-X Nowcast had previously indicated and even slightly exceeding those expectations. Existing home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 5.69 million units, up 3.3 percent from December and 3.8 percent from a year ago – its highest level since February 2007.

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The NAR also recently reported a 7.1 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices to $228,900 in January. This increase marked the 59th consecutive month of annual gains and also confirmed the nowcast prediction made in January. The February Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing-home sales will continue to make annual strides in February, falling between $220,056 – $243,220 with a target price point of $231,638 up 1.2 percent from January and up a substantial 9.9 percent from last year’s NAR figure.
“Though inventory constraints have hampered stronger sales growth and fueled a surge in prices, the housing market continues to benefit from healthy underlying demand bolstered by a solid labor market that boasts healthy job gains, low unemployment and wage growth,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “Looking forward, it’s possible that higher mortgage rates may create yet another affordability obstacle for would-be homebuyers. In the meantime, 2017 home sales appear to be advancing at a healthy pace.”

Firm Analyzes 2016 And Looks Head To This Year

Summit Valuations, LLC, a full service valuation company, has released its February Residential Real Estate Market Overview based on data compiled in December 2016, the most current industry information available. This month’s report includes an analysis of 2016 performance from Summit’s Chief Valuation Officer, Mark Melikian, author of the report, as well as a projection for what we can expect in 2017.

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“Looking back at the performance of the US residential housing market in 2016, we see a lot of fluctuation in all six of the data categories that we tracked last year,” Melikian said in his report. “The most significant of these was the year to date increase (January – December) in median price. At 8.7%, this is the greatest home price appreciation we’ve seen on a national basis in the past three years. According to statistics from the National Association of Realtors, the annual increase in median price during 2014 was 5.7%, in 2015 it was 6.8%.”

>>Changes observed in the other metrics Melikian tracks in his monthly market report include:

>>The median sales price of an existing home was $213,700 in January. It peaked at $247,600 and ended the year higher at $232,200.

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>>The seasonally adjusted annual rate of homes sold began the year at 5,470,000, dropped to a low of 5,070,000 in February, then ended the year higher at a rate of 5,490,000 homes sold.

>>There was a four-month supply of existing homes for sale at the beginning of the year. It rose steadily to a high of 4.7 months in May and July, then dropped to its year end level of 3.6 months.

>>The pending home sales index in January was 105.4, it spiked to 115 in April and has ended the year higher at 109.

>>The unemployment rate started the year at 4.9%, rose to 5% in March, April, and September, then went down to 4.7% at the end of the year.

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>>Mortgage interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.87% in January, dropped to 3.44% in July and August, then increased to end the year at 4.2%.

“With housing starts remaining at a relatively low level and inventory levels at a year-long low, we can expect to see fewer transactions coupled with price appreciation into the first quarter of 2017,” Melikian said. “However, a significant move in mortgage interest rates will likely have an impact on the rate of sales and, longer-term could impact housing prices. These statistics will continue to be presented and analyzed in subsequent reports.”

On a regional level in December, the South had the highest number of existing home sales and the West had the highest median price. The Northeast, Midwest and West experienced declines in the number of seasonally adjusted existing home sales while the South remained level. The Northeast experienced the highest increase in median sales price at 2.8%, month over month.

Summit’s report provides data made public by the U.S. Government, the National Association of Realtors and Freddie Mac. Melikian has been appraising real estate since 1987 and has been active in nationwide valuation services since 2005. He has successfully led teams of analysts, developed valuation services to meet client needs and represented buyers and sellers in secondary market loan tie out meetings. Much of his recent experience has focused on forensic reviews of REO properties for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Mr. Melikian holds a B.S. in Business Administration from San Diego State University.

About The Author

Tony Garritano

Tony Garritano is chairman and founder at PROGRESS in Lending Association. As a speaker Tony has worked hard to inform executives about how technology should be a tool used to further business objectives. For over 10 years he has worked as a journalist, researcher and speaker in the mortgage technology space. Starting this association was the next step for someone like Tony, who has dedicated his career to providing mortgage executives with the information needed to make informed technology decisions. He can be reached via e-mail at tony@progressinlending.com.

CoreLogic: Home Prices Are Up Year Over Year

New data from the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for November 2016 shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Here’s the data:

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Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 7.1 percent in November 2016 compared with November 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in November 2016 compared with October 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2016 to November 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.1 percent from November 2016 to December 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“Last summer’s very low mortgage rates sparked demand, and with for-sale inventories low, the result has been a pickup in home-price growth,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “With mortgage rates higher today and expected to rise even further in 2017, our national Home Price Index is expected to slow to 4.7 percent year over year by November 2017.”

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“Home prices continue to march higher, with home prices in 27 states above their pre-crisis peak levels,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Nationally, the CoreLogic Home Price Index remains 4 percent below its April 2006 peak, but should surpass that peak by the end of 2017.”

About The Author

Tony Garritano

Tony Garritano is chairman and founder at PROGRESS in Lending Association. As a speaker Tony has worked hard to inform executives about how technology should be a tool used to further business objectives. For over 10 years he has worked as a journalist, researcher and speaker in the mortgage technology space. Starting this association was the next step for someone like Tony, who has dedicated his career to providing mortgage executives with the information needed to make informed technology decisions. He can be reached via e-mail at tony@progressinlending.com.

CoreLogic: Home Prices Rise In October

CoreLogic released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for October 2016 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.

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Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.7 percent in October 2016 compared with October 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in October 2016 compared with September 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

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The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.6 percent on a year-over-year basis from October 2016 to October 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.2 percent from October 2016 to November 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“While national home prices increased 6.7 percent, only nine states had home price growth at the same rate of growth or higher than the national average because the largest states, such as Texas, Florida and California, are experiencing high rates of home price appreciation,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic.

“Home prices are continuing to soar across much of the U.S. led by major metro areas such as Boston, Los Angeles, Miami and Denver. Prices are being fueled by a potent cocktail of high demand, low inventories and historically low interest rates,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Looking forward to next year, nationwide home prices are expected to climb another 5 percent in many parts of the country to levels approaching the pre-recession peak.”

CoreLogic: Home Prices Are Up 6%

New data from CoreLogic shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Here are the details:

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Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.3 percent in September 2016 compared with September 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in September 2016 compared with August 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2016 to September 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.3 percent from September 2016 to October 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“Home-equity wealth has doubled during the last five years to $13 trillion, largely because of the recovery in home prices,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Nationwide during the past year, the average gain in housing wealth was about $11,000 per homeowner, but with wide geographic variation.”

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“Home-price growth creates wealth for owners with home equity,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “A 5 percent rise in home values over the next year would create another $1 trillion in home-equity wealth for homeowners.”

Good Schools Matter

ATTOM Data Solutions released its 2016 Schools and Housing Report, which shows that homes in zip codes with at least one good elementary school have higher values and stronger home price appreciation over the long term than homes in zip codes without any good elementary schools — where homes lost more value during the housing downturn but have seen stronger appreciation during the housing recovery of the last five years.

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For the report, ATTOM Data Solutions analyzed 2016 home values and price appreciation along with 2015 average test scores in 18,968 elementary schools nationwide in 4,435 zip codes with a combined 45.9 million single family homes and condos. For purposes of this report, a good school was defined as any with an overall test score at least one-third above the state average (see full methodology below).

Out of 1,661 zip codes with at least one good school, the average estimated home value as of July 2016 was $427,402, 77 percent higher than the average home value of $241,096 in 2,774 zip codes without any good schools.

“While good schools are one of the top items on most homebuyer checklists because of the quality-of-life benefit they provide, this report shows that high-performing schools also come with a financial benefit for homeowners in most markets — at least over the long term,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions (parent company of RealtyTrac). “Meanwhile, home prices in zip codes without any good schools tend to be more volatile, which might work to a homeowner’s financial benefit in the short term but not over the long term of at least 10 years.”

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83 percent of metro areas post higher home values in zips with good schools

Out of 173 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for the report, 143 metros (83 percent) had higher average home values in zip codes with good schools than in zip codes without good schools, including Los Angeles (65 percent higher); Chicago (65 percent higher); Atlanta (91 percent higher); New York (52 percent higher); and Miami (31 percent higher).

Metro areas where home values in zip codes with at least one good school were at least 95 percent higher than home values in zip codes without any good schools included Birmingham, Alabama (169 percent higher); Flint, Michigan (129 percent higher); and St. Louis (99 percent higher); Detroit (97 percent higher); and Baltimore (95 percent higher).

About The Author

Tony Garritano

Tony Garritano is chairman and founder at PROGRESS in Lending Association. As a speaker Tony has worked hard to inform executives about how technology should be a tool used to further business objectives. For over 10 years he has worked as a journalist, researcher and speaker in the mortgage technology space. Starting this association was the next step for someone like Tony, who has dedicated his career to providing mortgage executives with the information needed to make informed technology decisions. He can be reached via e-mail at tony@progressinlending.com.

CoreLogic: Home Prices Continue To Rise

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for June 2016 shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.7 percent in June 2016 compared with June 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in June 2016 compared with May 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

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The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from June 2016 to June 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase 0.6 percent from June 2016 to July 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“Mortgage rates dipped in June to their lowest level in more than three years, supporting home purchases,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Local markets with strong economic growth have generally had stronger home-price growth. Among large metropolitan areas, Denver had the lowest unemployment rate and the strongest home-price appreciation.”

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“Home prices continue to increase across the country, especially in the lower price ranges and in a number of metro areas,” said Anand Nallathambi, President and CEO of CoreLogic. “We see prices continuing to increase at a healthy rate over the next year by as much as 5 percent.”